We closed our first @tmrw.eth beta market after the Traitors finale yesterday. Learnings: - Clips are fun - People like to bet on shows - Gems need more utility - iOS app would be smoother Building that out now 👀 app.tomorrow.fun
Q2 is about to be a jobs report nightmare. https://x.com/jack/status/2027129697092731343?s=46
@tmrw.eth beta is live! We built a place to watch hot takes, bet on outcomes, and explore the future (without losing real money). You just: - Watch prediction videos - Bet with free gems - Drop your own takes Open beta has Super Bowl, Traitors and Tech questions - with more coming soon. app.tomorrow.fun
What happened to @ponder ? it peaked. 🥲 Keynesian beauty contests are conceptually elite: they show what people really think by making them put skin in the game. Perfect for a FC mini app. Some stats -> - 300k transactions on @base.base.eth - $500k+ in p2p payouts - 32,000+ users - 67 fun The problem Even with protections, people won’t put real money on anything that feels game-able. Sybils are everywhere. And even if we’re defending outcomes, the vibe is still: “yeah but… what if it’s rigged?” So most people cap out at $1-5 bets unless the outcome is insanely obvious... ...and when the outcome is insanely obvious, the game gets less fun. You want the classic crypto equation of more money = more fun, but the KBC structure doesn't have enough trust for that (maybe something World can solve with eyeball scans...) What's next Daily ponders continue (free money). But our main quest is now building a new place where predicting the future is a social game between humans — not a spreadsheet for whales. Ponder users will carry over stake into the new app + any airdrop stuff. we’ll push details from the @ponder app when it’s time, so keep notifications on. more soon. new adventure loading… 🚀
Fresh Ponder on the new FC logo 💭 I’m sure people will have no opinions on this whatsoever. https://www.weponder.io/predictions/35204
I had this long post written out about channels but did a full 180 by the time I got to the end. Here’s how I’d like to imagine navigating FC, though. I like knowing cozy corners exist even if I don’t use them often.
This dog @bertwurst.eth is absolutely ravaging the Ponder outcomes today.
@ponder just had the biggest payout of all times. 30X. You may be wondering how. Our anti collusion algo identified a pool of users who have voted together a statistically extremely unlikely portion of the time. Their votes were diminished in weight while they attempted to vote with large entries. TL;DR - algo working as intended. Big payouts for those who got it right.
The issue is now patched - here’s a quick summary. Check out Ben’s cast for the full write up.
Found some old Farcon footage on my phone - excited for next month.
AMA about @ponder! We’ve been shipping a lot of new stuff (more coming today) and figured there may be some questions on things like: - How do we stop collusion? - Is there a Dune dashboard? - Should clouds have monocles? Drop yours below 👇
Fapps came dangerously close
Happy International Women’s day! There are tons of talented women around here these days, but seeing as we can only add four options to Ponder questions…
How we feel about XRP being in the strategic reserve is probably also how people outside of crypto think about a crypto reserve existing at all.
Could only fit 4 in sadly https://frame.weponder.io/api/predict/29699
Last week we noticed an influx of users all voting for the same answer repeatedly, leading to statistically impossible outcomes (e.g., 100% accuracy over 30 votes). So today we launched CollusionGuard 9000 🛡️ It uses ML to identify statistically anomalous clusters and adjust vote weights accordingly. For example, if you voted alongside 50 other people on all of the right answers for ten questions, your vote diminishes in value until your responses normalize. People who fall into those clusters can still participate in boosted pools and win an equal amount by selecting the right answer. No banning required (for now). There’s risk in this approach. We expect a drop off in numbers from colluders - and some won’t consider this decentralized - but the overall integrity of the game should increase.
As the people predicted! This was always the best outcome. Pumped to see it formalized. 2025 is going to be an epic year for Farcaster.
I love this, but there’s no way some of these people aren’t sprinting into their homes saying “some crazy bald man wanted to chain me up out there.”
Sometimes I think about the metrics the Merkle Team can see and get a little embarrassed. https://frame.weponder.io/api/predict/28665
Castout generated the 12th largest Ponder poll of all time! Huge h/t to @adrienne & @nounishprof for building an experience that integrates so much of the ecosystem. Really love to see it, even if team @purple got kicked early.
🚀 New Product: Predictive Polls 🚀 These in-frame experiences let you test your ability to read market sentiment. Select the answer you think will get the most votes; if correct, you win part of a sponsored OP pool. The top 10,000 users by OpenRank score can create & vote (limited entries). 👇
NASA just launched the Europa Clipper that will take 5.5 years to reach its target (Jupiter’s orbit). One goal is to spot signs of life on Europa. By that time Farcaster will have 600M users and we’ll look back to see who got this right. https://frame.weponder.io/api/polls/23848
🔥 from @ccarella.eth this morning Scout Game feels like @moxie.eth but specifically for open source developers. Commit code to open source repos, earn points. Anyone can then speculate on those devs, giving them visibility + patronage. https://waitlist.scoutgame.xyz/api/frame/4327/waitlist
🗳️ HOW TO CUSTOMIZE POLLS 🗳️ Native @ponder polls have been rapidly improving, so we made two quick videos showing how you can get the most out of them. Part I - How to make a poll - Anon vs. Public - Gate by followers only - Gate by tokens held - How it all gets displayed
💭 Polls just became 100X easier to create on Warpcast! - Tap the new icon in your cast composer - Follow the steps You also get a little superpower. Tap the frame link on any poll and you can visit @ponder to view results by Power Badge, OGs, and low FID votes only. 1/2
Yesterday we launched a beta version of the new Ponder web app, where we’ll be extending the best content from every channel on Farcaster 💭 Here’s a quick 3min walkthrough of the curation mechanism. We’d love your feedback as we continue to mold the experience 🔊 weponder.io
@seedclub demo week is upon us. This Thursday, we’ll be giving rapid, public, early stage 5min pitches on what we’ve been building. 1-2:30PM ET @survey @bracketgame @unofficial @lisafound @chipped @sidequest Xhibit Link below. It’s gonna be fun. https://lu.ma/sc07demoday
The cohort that joins during the toe era will forever be scarred
Big Purple news: We are now officially a nonprofit Marshall Islands DAO, per Prop 37! That means: 1. New legal protections🛡️ 2. Ability to receive previously inaccessible grants 💰 We’re discussing a simple way to allow affirmation of the operating agreement. h/t to @thethriller for shepherding 🙏
We hope everyone had an awesome time at Farcon! 🏖️ If you couldn’t make it, we’ve got your back. This week we’re replacing the Ponder landing page with a Q&A summary of the main stage AMAs (Dan, Varun, etc.) Read the questions or see a link to full videos - courtesy of @nounishprof 🫶 weponder.io 1/2
Merkle Manufactory pitch deck leak 👀 https://frames.neynar.com/f/9b4b2752/ed298576
Frame question 🙋♂️ How are we expecting in-frame transactions to work in conjunction with/ App Store rules? Specifically: 1. In-app digital transaction tax 2. No secondary app stores within apps Just want to get ahead of it.
Did not see this narrative coming. https://x.com/garygensler/status/1744833049064288387?s=46&t=EGdhVdPPMOQNZlv3VR_Clg
💥 @ponder surveys 2.0 have arrived! Here’s what’s new: ➡️ Totally fresh landing page ➡️ Direct survey submission w/ PNDR tokens ➡️ Live survey previews & more To read the full breakdown check out our post on @paragraph 👇 https://bit.ly/3NBgTQi
🛡️ LEGAL WRAPPER UPDATE As of today, Purple members can visit a Charmverse page to learn all about why we’re exploring a legal wrapper, watch the recording from our convo with @thethriller , and view additional docs. Some of it is even kinda fun. Check it out! https://bit.ly/3Fthv6b
